If the new MDR regime is rolled out from the middle of this month, as scheduled, it should count as one of the boldest political actions by the Modi government on an economic-policy issue, and a signal that it is less worried about erosion of political capital it draws from one of its key constituencies, notes A K Bhattacharya.
When it pretends to be deaf, a situation can snowball into something it cannot contain. The government cannot dismiss public anger merely because protests are inconvenient or politically embarrassing, asserts Ramesh Menon.
India is deeply concerned by the growing consolidation of Pakistan-backed jihadi and radical Islamist groups in Bangladesh, particularly in the strategically vital Chittagong Hill Tracts, which experts warn is transforming the country into a new safe haven for these networks and posing a direct threat to India's security.
A five-storey boys' hostel in Satya Niketan, Delhi, collapsed, killing three students and trapping others, leading to widespread condemnation from opposition parties. Leaders from Congress and AAP criticised both the central and Delhi governments, highlighting inadequate hostel facilities and demanding accountability for student safety.
India's position appears to be anchored around three red lines: Hasina's safety and the guarantee of a fair trial; assurances that Bangladeshi territory will not be used for activities hostile to India; and the restoration of an inclusive democratic process in Bangladesh.
New Delhi must look for formal, institutional statements issued directly from Washington rather than rely on casual pronouncements meant for local audiences, notes Ambassador Rajasekhar.
India is hosting the BRICS summit, leveraging the platform to address global trade tensions and champion the developmental priorities of the Global South, including food, energy, and supply chain security. The summit, attended by leaders like President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, will focus on resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability, with India aiming to strengthen intra-BRICS collaboration and discuss global matters. The expanded BRICS grouping represents a significant portion of the world's population and GDP, making its discussions crucial for global economic stability.
When dialogue fails, protest becomes inevitable.
In a democracy, protest is often the only language left once institutions stop listening, explains Ramesh Menon.
India is closely monitoring Sri Lanka's decision to offer foreign investors control of an airport near the China-controlled Hambantota port, as it could present a rare opening for Indian firms seeking strategic footholds in the Indian Ocean.
If the concerns over risking political capital are overcome, the long-term gains for the Indian economy will be immense, asserts A K Bhattacharya.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
'At the first sign of real trouble, that money will move. There will be a run.'
Mrs Gandhi's power ebbed and peaked with the times. Mr Modi's has almost been constant, barring the few months of hard dip after the 240 seats of 2024, points out Shekhar Gupta.
'Uncertainty level A in the morning, uncertainty level B in the afternoon. If I answer about tariff rates now, I'll be outdated by the evening.'
False and acrimonious debates such as Modi versus Manmohan might allow for victories that are political and partisan. But the real loser is the nation, India and Bharat, notes Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic advisor to the Modi government in its first term.
'Marathi-speaking people of Mumbai have now emerged as a consolidated vote bank standing firmly behind the Thackerays.'
A string of welfare schemes and promises tests the state's budget, which is already heavily dependent on central support and spends little as capital outlay.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
If they act now, they can reshape the strategic map of Asia without firing a shot. If they wait, the next opportunity will come only after a serious Taiwan Strait incident -- by which time the price will be far higher, and the room for boldness far smaller -- the opportunity may well be lost by then. The question is no longer whether this can or should be done, points out Varun Arya.
Modi said the transformations in the country in the past 10 years have reignited a risk-taking culture among the citizens.
'Can a nuclear-armed nation sustain itself indefinitely under overt military rule without catastrophic consequences for itself and the region? History suggests otherwise.'
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
'When he first came to office, my belief is that the PM's reading of the landscape was that, with a vanquished Congress and fragmented Opposition, he was looking at least at two terms in office. This reading perhaps allows for a more cautious, gradual approach.' 'It was only a matter of time before the government was forced to come face-to-face with a serious corruption scandal. This is not a commentary on the BJP, but a statement about India's political economy.' 'There is growing concern about the government's commitment to freedom of expression, religious tolerance, and an independent civil society. Thus far, the positive movement on strategic and economic matters has crowded out these concerns, but they are lingering beneath the surface.'
Plans for big bang reforms in the GST regime by Diwali, the Putin-Trump summit and S&P upgrading India's sovereign credit rating are likely to instil optimism in the domestic equity market in the week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trends in global markets and the trading activity of foreign investors would also impact domestic investors' sentiment.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
On June 26, for the likes of me, the music died. Any impression of potential change held forth by the outcome of the 2024 general election, was vaporised, reveals Shyam G Menon.
'The autonomy of essential institutions is clearly under question as the Modi government seeks to influence them politically.' 'The credibility of institutions such as the EC, the CBI, the CVC, the UPSC, the RBI, media, and universities, has been compromised,' notes Zoya Hasan, the distinguished political thinker.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Wednesday that his government's action against corruption has made some people angry but he will not turn back in this fight against graft and nepotism, however big an alliance his rivals form against him.
With the reality of coalition politics staring the BJP in its face, this was inevitable, points out Ramesh Menon.
The bilateral trade between India and China has been growing at a healthy rate, but the trade gap remains sharply tilted in Beijing's favour. India has time and again flagged its concern over the ballooning trade deficit and the non-trade barriers faced by Indian goods in the Chinese market.
The BJP is the preferred choice because it offers what the Mughals and later British offered in their time: A stable polity and an environment in which business could function, explains T N Ninan.
'The Modi Model we see now is still the old Gujarat Model.' 'But with an acknowledgement that governing India is more challenging than governing Gujarat,' notes Shekhar Gupta.
In this round, the market has won. But it is still for Gautam Adani to decide whether he has lost or not, argues Shekhar Gupta.
If Modi wants to leave a real legacy, breaking India's strategic triangulation would be the real gift, notes Shekhar Gupta.
'Fiscal purists would quarrel with the idea of selling assets to pay for current expenditure -- such as the payout to farmers and the health insurance programme -- for the obvious reason that the process cannot go on forever.' 'At some point, the list of assets available for sale will run out,' notes T N Ninan.consultations -- something already aired in connection with the lease of airports to the Adani group, says T N Ninan.
'The BJP's numbers in this government are almost the same as those enjoyed by the Congress under P V Narasimha Rao when the reform process was kicked off in 1991.' 'As before, the only constraints on the prime minister's actions are internal, not external.' 'They come from his own assessment of the political consequences of any action,' points out Mihir S Sharma.
The BJP would want that by March 2022, when UP votes, the economy starts looking up and it heads into the polls with no other issue distracting from its main poll plank of the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.
With such announcements grabbing the voters' attention, critical issues like pollution, especially the smog that chokes Delhi every winter, remain largely unaddressed. Many residents have raised concerns over the lack of concrete action plans to combat air pollution, which continues to pose a severe health risk to Delhiites.
If Modi's truly a reformer and a believer in minimum government, he would bury the Vodafone ghosts now. He would also then go to Bihar, campaigning on his politically controversial reforms. Both will need him to dip deep into his accumulated political capital and risk it, suggests Shekhar Gupta.
